Three to watch, one to avoid as NASCAR heads to Atlanta

Apparently, one superspeedway race to open the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season wasn't enough. The series will head to Atlanta this week, where ever since the track was repaved and reconfigured before the 2022 season, it has driven like a smaller Daytona or Talladega.

That means many of the same drivers to watch from the Daytona 500 will once again be at the top of the odds chart. So let's take a look at a favorite, a contender and a dark horse, as well as one driver who may not be worth your money for this Sunday's Ambetter Health 400.

Favorite: Chase Elliott (+1000, per DraftKings as of Friday afternoon)

Elliott's season got off to a strong start at Daytona as he looks to put his disappointing 2023 in the rearview mirror. He finished second in his Duel race and then 14th in the 500 after leading 13 laps. Now the Georgia-born driver heads to his home track, where he won in the Summer of 2022 on its current configuration.

It just seems like this is the type of race where Elliott could make a statement that he is back to his elite form. He has the second-best odds behind only Joey Logano, and when the checkered flag falls, don't be surprised if they're ringing the siren at the Dawsonville Pool Room.

Contender: Brad Keselowski (+1200)

Keselowski was a lap away from winning this very race in 2023, but was passed by Logano. Riding a nearly three-year winless streak dating back to Talladega in 2021, it just seems like the 2012 Cup Series champion is on the precipice of returning to Victory Lane, and it might happen this weekend.

Keselowski's +1200 odds are only the eighth-highest, just behind five different drivers tied at +1100. That seems like solid value for a driver who is always strong on drafting tracks, and will be looking to bounce back from a DNF at Daytona.

Dark Horse: Corey LaJoie (+2800)

Ever since Atlanta was reconfigured into a miniature superspeedway in 2022, it has been LaJoie's best track. He's finished in the top five in the spring race in each of the past two years and fought for the win in the 2022 summer race before he crashed on the last lap.

If you're looking for an underdog bet this weekend, LaJoie at +2800 is the move. He finished fourth in the Daytona 500 last weekend, and a win on Sunday would solidify him as the early favorite for the breakout driver of the year.

Avoid: William Byron (+1100)

Yes, Byron just won the Daytona 500. And, yes, Byron has won two of the four races at Atlanta since it was redesigned, including the most recent one. However, that is precisely why he should be avoided: The law of averages tends to be a cruel game in NASCAR, especially on superspeedways, and history tells us that Byron probably won't be going back-to-back (both this season and at Atlanta).

His +1100 odds — tied for third-best — are understandably high, but you'd be better off looking for value elsewhere. No driver has won back-to-back races to begin a season since Matt Kenseth in 2009, and it won't be happening this year.