FPI Predicts BYU vs TCU, Updates Win Projection for the Cougars

BYU's bye week is officially in the rearview mirror. BYU is 4-1 as prepares to take on TCU on Saturday. The Horned Frogs are 3-3 and coming off a 27-14 loss to Iowa State. Most notably, TCU starting quarterback Chandler Morris left the game with what appeared to be a knee injury and did not return. His injury status for this week against BYU is unknown. ESPN's predictive college football algorithm, the football power index, updated its prediction for BYU-TCU. FPI gives BYU a 27.9% chance to beat TCU at home.

Coming off the win over Cincinnati, FPI projected BYU to finish with a 6.1-5.9 record and gave BYU a 68.2% chance to finish with six or more wins. After the bye week, FPI downgraded BYU's projected record to 6.0-6.0 and now gives BYU just a 65.0% chance to finish with six or more wins. Why did FPI's outlook for BYU get worse during the bye week? BYU's future opponents Texas Tech, Iowa State and Oklahoma State played well on Saturday which upgraded their FPI rankings. Therefore, BYU's win probabilities against Texas Tech, Iowa State, and Oklahoma State decreased.

BYU started the 2023 season ranked 60th in FPI. BYU is 53rd after a 4-1 start to the season. The Cougars are ranked above Big 12 peers Houston (70) and Baylor (79).