On the Ones and Twos – The Big 12's Best Guard Prospects

Brigham Young guard/wing Jaxson Robinson, a graduate player that has demonstrated elite scoring ability in his last couple of seasons, tips off the list of my favorite Big 12 guard prospects heading into the 2024 NBA Draft.

Across his several years of college basketball experience, from Texas A&M in College Station to Fayetteville, Arkansas and the Razorbacks, Robinson has improved his deep shot drastically since his freshman season, having an increase in percentage every year.

With that great, consistent stroke, Robinson is one of the best shooters not just in the conference, but in the country overall, especially when talking about volume scorers. From deep, Robinson is shooting 38.8% on seven attempts per game.

Though he is a graduate player, he’s not as old as most players in this classification, and will be 21.5 years old around draft day in 2024.

As I’ve said before, this year’s draft class will feature a lot more upperclassmen being selected than the typical draft usually allows for, meaning some of these guys being older won’t be a dealbreaker.

Robinson has the ability to be a solid scoring option with a bench unit at the next level, and at 6-7, he’s not an undersized project. In a way, his age may be beneficial in that he has a high floor coming out. He’s sort of a what-you-see-is-what-you-get type of prospect, which could be a really nice pickup somewhere in the picks 30-45 range.

Projected: late first, early-to-mid second-round pick

Tamin Lipsey, Iowa State

Lipsey is a sophomore from Iowa State that absolutely stuffs the stat sheet on a very good Big 12 Cyclones squad. On the year, he’s averaging 14.7 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 5.7 assists per game.

The fact that he’s pulling down nearly six boards per game standing at just 6-foot-1 is pretty outstanding. He’s also hitting nearly 40% from deep, sports an eFG of 53.4%, and averages 1.07 points per shot.

He’s got great mechanics, can shoot a bit off the bounce (66th percentile on such attempts according to Synergy Sports), but also, has a great nose for finding open players when active with his dribble.

The skillset is there, but there are some flaws. Obviously the height issue stands out, but additionally, he’s not a fantastic athlete, and he’s not a lock-down defender. He’s a bit undisciplined on the defensive end occasionally, which frankly will not fly in the NBA, where he’ll already be picked on for his size.

Like a couple of others on this list, I think Lipsey will be a second-round pick that plays lower-end rotational minutes from the bench. This doesn’t mean he can’t be valuable, of course – it will be up to him to make what he can of his minutes.

Projected: Mid-to-Late Second Round

Ja'Kobe Walter, Baylor

Former McKinney, TX/Link Prep, MO product Ja’Kobe Walter came into the season with high expectations as a five-star composite recruit, expectations he’s so far met and surpassed. At 6-foot-5, 195 pounds, Walter looks as if he was built in a laboratory where they build off-ball guards for the NBA.

Walter is, overall, a very good shooter, but particularly good at doing so off of the catch. He’s in the 71st percentile in points per shot at 1.05 PPS overall on attempts according to Synergy Sports, ranking him as a “Very Good” player in that category.

He’s not only a catch-and-shoot asset, but an effective movement shooter as well, able to hit shots off of screens going either direction. His 53.6% eFG helps to prove this point, and his three-point percentage of 40% for the year amplifies it.

Walter leads his team in scoring with 15.4 points per game, and this is splitting scoring duties with fellow guards RayJ Dennis (13.9 PPG) and Langston Love (11.3 PPG). He also has to contend with sharing the floor with another likely lottery pick in freshman forward/center Yves Missi (10.1 PPG, 6.3 RPG).

While very skilled offensively, it is clear that Walter is definitely an off-guard and not a lead, as he plays off of RayJ Dennis, who handles point duties. Dennis has been helpful in setting up Walter this year with easier shots, especially from deep.

What’s also fun about Walter as a prospect is his ability on the defensive end of things, where his wingspan and athletic prowess give him some natural skill defending on the perimeter.

He’s switchable on defense from point guard to off-guard to wing, which is a crucial thing for young NBA players to be able to do. This kind of ability will get Walter on the floor earlier than usual as a rookie, and if he’s consistent enough, will keep him out there.

I’ve seen Walter ranked anywhere from no. 1 overall to no. 12 overall roughly. I’m not quite that high on him to have him first overall, but I can say I am a big enough fan to have him top five on my board.

Projected: First Round, No. 5 – no. 10

HONORABLE MENTIONS:

Elmarko Jackson, Kansas

Though he doesn’t have crazy stats to back it up, Elmarko Jackson is absolutely a guy that is capable of being picked in the 2024 NBA Draft.

A strong, wiry, athletic, and skilled combo guard, Jackson splits reps with several other ball-dominant players, like Kevin McCullar Jr, DaJuan Harris, and Johnny Furphy – and those are just the guards. Center Hunter Dickinson and forward KJ Adams combine for an average of 32 PPG, meaning there is only so much to go around.

What Jackson has on his side is (A) youth and (B) athleticism. He’s compact and built, strong enough to finish through contact.

His issues this year have come from his inefficiency on the offensive end, as he, for the season, is shooting 35% from the field overall and a putrid 28% from deep.

What is encouraging, however, is that he shoots an astounding 92% from the free-throw line, which, as we know, is a consistent indicator of a player’s ability to shoot from deep. The mechanics are solid – he just needs to get consistent shooting from distance.

Projected: Early Second Round.

Tyrese Hunter, Texas

Hunter is another guy that, should he be taller, would’ve been a pretty easy selection. His problem is that he’s 6-0.

Now that his cramping issues have been resolved, Hunter is actually able to play full games, as his medical condition really hampered his ability not only to attack the basket from the perimeter, but also to defend.

Despite his size, he’s a pretty solid point-of-attack defender. He reminds me on offense a bit of Kennedy Chandler, former Tennessee guard with a good first step that was quick to the rim and could attack the basket.

The writing is on the wall for that comparison, however; Chandler barely made it a season in the NBA before being cut by the Memphis Grizzlies (now plays for Brooklyn’s G-League affiliate, the Long Island Nets).

Not a great sign for Hunter. He has the ability to play at the next level, at least in small minutes, but he may not have the body to do so.

Projected: Undrafted

Javian McCollum, Oklahoma

McCollum is another guard that can fill it up offensively, averaging 14.9 PPG and dishing four assists/game. Though undersized, McCollum potentially has the skills to play some low-end rotational minutes at the next level.

Everyone knows the guard rule in the NBAl: If you’re not at least 6-4, you have to be a dynamic shooter and/or an elite playaker. McCollum is close to being a good enough shooter to overcome his physical limitations, as he’s considered ‘Very Good’ according to Synergy Sports at the 72nd percentile in points per shot.

As the leading offensive player for a pretty good Oklahoma Sooners basketball team, McCollum will get some attention – whether it’s enough positive attention to get him drafted will remain to be seen.

Projected: Second Round – Undrafted